128位男棋手世锦赛夺冠的可能性列表

卡斯帕罗夫网站发表Jeff Sonas的文章，该文从统计学对参加世锦赛的128名男棋手进行了分析。其中叶江川获得冠军的赔率为273:1,章钟为394:1,徐俊为1100:1,余少腾，梁充，李文良和张鹏翔均为25000:1.

下面全部列出文章对各位棋手的预测：
#1 Anand, Viswanathan: 23% chance to win; CM seed: 1; FIDE Oct. Seed: 1
#8 Topalov, Veselin: 10% chance; CM seed: 2; FIDE Oct. Seed: 4
#2 Adams, Michael: 8% chance; CM seed: 3; FIDE Oct. Seed: 5
#5 Leko, Peter: 7% chance; CM seed: 5; FIDE Oct. Seed: 3
#7 Gelfand, Boris: 6% chance; CM seed: 7; FIDE Oct. Seed: 12
#4 Ivanchuk, Vassily: Odds are 17 to 1 against; CM seed: 6; FIDE Oct. Seed: 6
#9 Shirov, Alexei: Odds are 18 to 1 against; CM seed: 4; FIDE Oct. Seed: 10
#3 Morozevich, Alexander: Odds are 24 to 1 against; CM seed: 8; FIDE Oct. Seed: 2
#6 Bareev, Evgeny: Odds are 36 to 1 against; CM seed: 9; FIDE Oct. Seed: 7
#14 Georgiev, Kiril: Odds are 46 to 1 against; CM seed: 12; FIDE Oct. Seed: 15
#12 Khalifman, Alexander: Odds are 58 to 1 against; CM seed: 14; FIDE Oct. Seed: 11
#10 Kasimdzhanov, Rustam: Odds are 61 to 1 against; CM seed: 11; FIDE Oct. Seed: 9
#19 Ponomariov, Ruslan: Odds are 63 to 1 against; CM seed: 15; FIDE Oct. Seed: 18
#16 Karpov, Anatoly E: Odds are 64 to 1 against; CM seed: 10; FIDE Oct. Seed: 14
#11 Smirin, Ilia: Odds are 64 to 1 against; CM seed: 19; FIDE Oct. Seed: 13
#18 Polgar, Judit: Odds are 72 to 1 against; CM seed: 13; FIDE Oct. Seed: 16
#15 Svidler, Peter: Odds are 72 to 1 against; CM seed: 16; FIDE Oct. Seed: 17
#13 van Wely, Loek: Odds are 80 to 1 against; CM seed: 17; FIDE Oct. Seed: 8
#17 Dreev, Alexey: Odds are 104 to 1 against; CM seed: 18; FIDE Oct. Seed: 20
#38 Sakaev, Konstantin: Odds are 107 to 1 against; CM seed: 22; FIDE Oct. Seed: 35
#24 Grischuk, Alexander: Odds are 123 to 1 against; CM seed: 20; FIDE Oct. Seed: 25
#21 Lautier, Joel: Odds are 127 to 1 against; CM seed: 24; FIDE Oct. Seed: 29
#23 Azmaiparashvili, Zurab A: Odds are 136 to 1 against; CM seed: 23; FIDE Oct. Seed: 22
#33 Rublevsky, Sergei: Odds are 146 to 1 against; CM seed: 21; FIDE Oct. Seed: 37
#22 Short, Nigel D: Odds are 153 to 1 against; CM seed: 26; FIDE Oct. Seed: 21
#37 Dautov, Rustem: Odds are 163 to 1 against; CM seed: 25; FIDE Oct. Seed: 40
#26 Beliavsky, Alexander G: Odds are 167 to 1 against; CM seed: 28; FIDE Oct. Seed: 23
#34 Zvjaginsev, Vadim: Odds are 186 to 1 against; CM seed: 29; FIDE Oct. Seed: 33
#30 Vaganian, Rafael A: Odds are 208 to 1 against; CM seed: 32; FIDE Oct. Seed: 31
#35 Gurevich, Mikhail N: Odds are 241 to 1 against; CM seed: 30; FIDE Oct. Seed: 54
#20 Ye Jiangchuan: Odds are 273 to 1 against; CM seed: 35; FIDE Oct. Seed: 19
#45 Korchnoi, Viktor L: Odds are 306 to 1 against; CM seed: 31; FIDE Oct. Seed: 34
#32 Tkachiev, Vladislav: Odds are 306 to 1 against; CM seed: 27; FIDE Oct. Seed: 38
#29 Sutovsky, Emil: Odds are 310 to 1 against; CM seed: 38; FIDE Oct. Seed: 26
#28 Nikolic, Predrag: Odds are 335 to 1 against; CM seed: 34; FIDE Oct. Seed: 30
#50 Graf, Alexander: Odds are 350 to 1 against; CM seed: 42; FIDE Oct. Seed: 49
#43 Ehlvest, Jaan: Odds are 360 to 1 against; CM seed: 41; FIDE Oct. Seed: 43
#52 Lputian, Smbat G: Odds are 360 to 1 against; CM seed: 33; FIDE Oct. Seed: 46
#62 Eingorn, Viacheslav S: Odds are 365 to 1 against; CM seed: 37; FIDE Oct. Seed: 62
#25 Zhang Zhong: Odds are 394 to 1 against; CM seed: 36; FIDE Oct. Seed: 27
#42 Movsesian, Sergei: Odds are 407 to 1 against; CM seed: 39; FIDE Oct. Seed: 39
#70 Benjamin, Joel L: Odds are 414 to 1 against; CM seed: 44; FIDE Oct. Seed: 71
#40 Lastin, Alexander: Odds are 436 to 1 against; CM seed: 43; FIDE Oct. Seed: 42
#44 Shipov, Sergei: Odds are 460 to 1 against; CM seed: 48; FIDE Oct. Seed: 44
#77 Krasenkow, Michal: Odds are 606 to 1 against; CM seed: 47; FIDE Oct. Seed: 66
#55 Asrian, Karen: Odds are 606 to 1 against; CM seed: 50; FIDE Oct. Seed: 57
#63 Kobalija, Mihail: Odds are 691 to 1 against; CM seed: 45; FIDE Oct. Seed: 59
#83 Christiansen, Larry M: Odds are 710 to 1 against; CM seed: 52; FIDE Oct. Seed: 82
#27 Bologan, Viorel: Odds are 731 to 1 against; CM seed: 56; FIDE Oct. Seed: 24
#74 Khenkin, Igor: Odds are 731 to 1 against; CM seed: 51; FIDE Oct. Seed: 79
#64 Goldin, Alexander: Odds are 829 to 1 against; CM seed: 40; FIDE Oct. Seed: 48
#57 Gulko, Boris F: Odds are 921 to 1 against; CM seed: 49; FIDE Oct. Seed: 52
#36 Vallejo Pons, Francisco: Odds are 956 to 1 against; CM seed: 62; FIDE Oct. Seed: 41
#31 Xu Jun: Odds are 1,100 to 1 against; CM seed: 57; FIDE Oct. Seed: 28
#47 Milov, Vadim: Odds are 1,100 to 1 against; CM seed: 59; FIDE Oct. Seed: 60
#82 Yermolinsky, Alex V: Odds are 1,100 to 1 against; CM seed: 61; FIDE Oct. Seed: 77
#65 Nielsen, Peter Heine: Odds are 1,100 to 1 against; CM seed: 46; FIDE Oct. Seed: 45
#51 Nisipeanu, Liviu Dieter: Odds are 1,200 to 1 against; CM seed: 64; FIDE Oct. Seed: 51
#53 Kaidanov, Gregory S: Odds are 1,300 to 1 against; CM seed: 54; FIDE Oct. Seed: 56
#76 Shabalov, Alexander: Odds are 1,300 to 1 against; CM seed: 63; FIDE Oct. Seed: 73
#69 Anastasian, Ashot: Odds are 1,300 to 1 against; CM seed: 67; FIDE Oct. Seed: 69
#59 Baklan, Vladimir: Odds are 1,500 to 1 against; CM seed: 55; FIDE Oct. Seed: 68
#41 Motylev, Alexander: Odds are 1,600 to 1 against; CM seed: 58; FIDE Oct. Seed: 32
#90 Timoshenko, Georgy: Odds are 1,800 to 1 against; CM seed: 66; FIDE Oct. Seed: 89
#61 Avrukh, Boris: Odds are 1,900 to 1 against; CM seed: 53; FIDE Oct. Seed: 53
#39 Delchev, Aleksander: Odds are 1,900 to 1 against; CM seed: 68; FIDE Oct. Seed: 36
#93 Savchenko, Stanislav: Odds are 1,900 to 1 against; CM seed: 76; FIDE Oct. Seed: 92
#46 Tiviakov, Sergei: Odds are 2,100 to 1 against; CM seed: 60; FIDE Oct. Seed: 64
#80 Ivanov, Alexander V: Odds are 2,300 to 1 against; CM seed: 78; FIDE Oct. Seed: 72
#68 Macieja, Bartlomiej: Odds are 2,300 to 1 against; CM seed: 65; FIDE Oct. Seed: 75
#75 Volkov, Sergey: Odds are 2,800 to 1 against; CM seed: 79; FIDE Oct. Seed: 76
#84 Psakhis, Lev B: Odds are 3,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 69; FIDE Oct. Seed: 78
#78 Bruzon Bautista, Lazaro: Odds are 3,500 to 1 against; CM seed: 75; FIDE Oct. Seed: 87
#85 Lesiege, Alexandre: Odds are 3,500 to 1 against; CM seed: 82; FIDE Oct. Seed: 70
#56 Gyimesi, Zoltan: Odds are 4,200 to 1 against; CM seed: 70; FIDE Oct. Seed: 55
#92 Gurevich, Dmitry: Odds are 4,200 to 1 against; CM seed: 77; FIDE Oct. Seed: 90
#119 Vlassov, Nikolai: Odds are 4,200 to 1 against; CM seed: 94; FIDE Oct. Seed: 119
#49 Pigusov, Evgeny: Odds are 4,200 to 1 against; CM seed: 71; FIDE Oct. Seed: 47
#54 Luther, Thomas: Odds are 5,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 73; FIDE Oct. Seed: 58
#60 Fedorov, Alexei: Odds are 5,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 81; FIDE Oct. Seed: 63
#73 Conquest, Stuart: Odds are 5,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 74; FIDE Oct. Seed: 61
#48 Milos, Gilberto: Odds are 6,200 to 1 against; CM seed: 72; FIDE Oct. Seed: 50
#58 Kotsur, Pavel: Odds are 6,200 to 1 against; CM seed: 89; FIDE Oct. Seed: 80
#86 Radjabov, Teimour: Odds are 8,300 to 1 against; CM seed: 84; FIDE Oct. Seed: 85
#71 Dominguez, Lenier: Odds are 8,300 to 1 against; CM seed: 86; FIDE Oct. Seed: 65
#100 Zapata, Alonso: Odds are 8,300 to 1 against; CM seed: 90; FIDE Oct. Seed: 100
#108 Barua, Dibyendu: Odds are 12,500 to 1 against; CM seed: 96; FIDE Oct. Seed: 105
#112 Supatashvili, Khvicha: Odds are 12,500 to 1 against; CM seed: 101; FIDE Oct. Seed: 107
#66 Aseev, Konstantin N: Odds are 12,500 to 1 against; CM seed: 80; FIDE Oct. Seed: 67
#87 Malakhatko, Vadim: Odds are 12,500 to 1 against; CM seed: 98; FIDE Oct. Seed: 88
#89 Cvitan, Ognjen: Odds are 12,500 to 1 against; CM seed: 91; FIDE Oct. Seed: 91
#81 Damljanovic, Branko: Odds are 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 93; FIDE Oct. Seed: 83
#95 Gdanski, Jacek: Odds are 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 99; FIDE Oct. Seed: 94
#102 Nataf, Igor Alexandre: Odds are 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 97; FIDE Oct. Seed: 97
#104 Yu Shaoteng: Odds are 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 112; FIDE Oct. Seed: 106
#67 Sasikiran, Krishnan: Odds are 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 92; FIDE Oct. Seed: 84
#79 Sulskis, Sarunas: Odds are 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 87; FIDE Oct. Seed: 81
#91 Volokitin, Andrei: Odds are 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 103; FIDE Oct. Seed: 86
#97 Hamdouchi, Hichem: Odds are 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 83; FIDE Oct. Seed: 113
#98 Atalik, Suat: Odds are 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 85; FIDE Oct. Seed: 102
#106 Iuldachev, Saidali: Odds are 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 95; FIDE Oct. Seed: 104
#109 Barsov, Alexei: Odds are 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 102; FIDE Oct. Seed: 103
#72 Vescovi, Giovanni P: Odds are greater than 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 88; FIDE Oct. Seed: 74
#88 Liang Chong: Odds are greater than 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 113; FIDE Oct. Seed: 99
#94 Rogozenko, Dorian: Odds are greater than 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 100; FIDE Oct. Seed: 96
#96 Nguyen Anh Dung: Odds are greater than 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 107; FIDE Oct. Seed: 98
#99 Belkhodja, Slim: Odds are greater than 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 120; FIDE Oct. Seed: 115
#101 Safin, Shukhrat: Odds are greater than 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 110; FIDE Oct. Seed: 93
#103 Harikrishna, Penteala: Odds are greater than 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 106; FIDE Oct. Seed: 112
#105 Ghaem Maghami, Ehsan: Odds are greater than 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 109; FIDE Oct. Seed: 108
#107 Cámpora, Daniel H: Odds are greater than 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 108; FIDE Oct. Seed: 95
#110 Li Wenliang: Odds are greater than 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 111; FIDE Oct. Seed: 109
#111 Al Modiahki, Mohamad: Odds are greater than 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 114; FIDE Oct. Seed: 110
#113 Zhang Pengxiang: Odds are greater than 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 104; FIDE Oct. Seed: 101
#114 Hoffman, Alejandro: Odds are greater than 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 105; FIDE Oct. Seed: 111
#115 El Taher, Fouad: Odds are greater than 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 115; FIDE Oct. Seed: 116
#116 Felgaer, Ruben: Odds are greater than 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 121; FIDE Oct. Seed: 117
#117 Ganguly, Surya Shekhar: Odds are greater than 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 117; FIDE Oct. Seed:114
#118 Simutowe, Amon: Odds are greater than 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 125; FIDE Oct. Seed: 120
#120 Rizouk, Aimen: Odds are greater than 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 119; FIDE Oct. Seed: 118
#121 Pierrot, Facundo: Odds are greater than 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 116; FIDE Oct. Seed: 121
#122 Cabrera, Alexis: Odds are greater than 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 126; FIDE Oct. Seed: 122
#123 Gluzman, Mikhail: Odds are greater than 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 118; FIDE Oct. Seed: 123
#124 Kobese, Watu: Odds are greater than 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 122; FIDE Oct. Seed: 124
#125 Shovunov, Baatr: Odds are greater than 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 123; FIDE Oct. Seed: 127
#126 Zeliakov, Nugzar: Odds are greater than 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: ?; FIDE Oct. Seed: ?
#127 Sarthou, Gaetan: Odds are greater than 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 127; FIDE Oct. Seed: 126
#128 Touzane, Olivier: Odds are greater than 25,000 to 1 against; CM seed: 124; FIDE Oct. Seed: 125
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《国际象棋通报》01-11-23