阿南德有23%可能性获得世锦赛冠军

卡斯帕罗夫网站发表Jeff Sonas的文章，该文从统计学对参加世锦赛的128名男棋手进行了分析。根据统计学分析，阿南德有23%可能性再次获得莫斯科世锦赛的冠军。其他可能性较大的棋手分别是托帕洛夫，亚当斯，列科，格尔凡德，伊万丘克，希洛夫，莫洛索维奇和巴里也夫。
他们的可能性如下：
#1 Anand, Viswanathan: 23% chance to win
#8 Topalov, Veselin: 10% chance
#2 Adams, Michael: 8% chance
#5 Leko, Peter: 7% chance
#7 Gelfand, Boris: 6% chance
#4 Ivanchuk, Vassily: Odds are 17 to 1 against
#9 Shirov, Alexei: Odds are 18 to 1 against
#3 Morozevich, Alexander: Odds are 24 to 1 against
#6 Bareev, Evgeny: Odds are 36 to 1 against

文章同时预测了比赛进入第3轮到最后决赛的棋手。 预测如下：
Round 3 (two-game matches)
Anand-Tkachiev, Karpov-Dreev, Topalov-Zhang Zhong, Shirov-Grischuk
Ivanchuk-Sutovsky, van Wely-Ye Jiangchuang, Leko-Nikolic, Khalifman-Lautier
Adams-Xu Jun, Svidler-Polgar, Gelfand-Beliavsky, and the bracket-formatter’s nightmare of Kasimdzhanov-Azmaiparashvili
Morozevich-Vaganian, Georgiev-Ponomariov, Bareev-Bologan, Smirin-Short

Round 4 (two-game matches)
Anand-Karpov, Topalov-Shirov
Ivanchuk-van Wely, Leko-Khalifman
Adams-Svidler, Gelfand-Kasimdzhanov
Morozevich-Georgiev, Bareev-Smirin

Round 5 (two-game matches)
Anand-Topalov, Ivanchuk-Leko
Adams-Gelfand, Morozevich-Bareev

Round 6 (four-game matches)
Anand-Ivanchuk, Adams-Morozevich

Round 7 (eight-game match)
Anand-Adams

该文是外国专家的预测，并不是64格和译者的意见，仅供参考。 叶红编译

《国际象棋通报》01-11-23